Germany's AfD party polling at record levels, gains two district-wide victories in recent elections

AfD party leader in Thuringia Bjorn Höcke (left) and National party co-leaderTino Chrupalla (right) applaud Robert Sesselmann (center) on his June 25th victory to become District Administrator of Sonneberg, in the state of Thuringia.

By Carolyn Yeager

TWO LOCAL RUNOFF VOTES IN EASTERN GERMANY were won by the Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD), now the country's most successful far-right party since World War II.

Robert Sesselmann won the June 25^th District Administrator election in Sonneberg, a small district in east Germany's Thuringia state. It was the first time a candidate from the far-right party was elected to head a government. A district administrator does not have much clout, but jubilant AfD leaders are hoping the victory will herald far greater political success.

The following week, the AfD's Hannes Loth, a local farmer, beat independent candidate Nils Naumann in the small town of Raguhn-Jessnitz, Saxony-Anhalt, to become the AfD's first ever mayor in Germany. Though the two districts are relatively small, the results are considered significant because they confirm a trend in national polls: The AfD can now claim the approval of 20% of German voters.

According to the latest opinion polls, the AfD has realistic chances of becoming the strongest political force in three eastern German states in regional elections set for 2024.

In Thuringia, the home of Bjorn Höcke, voters are undeterred by the fact that several party figureheads have been accused of making positive references to fascism and the National Socialist regime under Adolf Hitler. Party co-leader Tino Chrupalla is confident that the recent election success is "just the beginning!"

A survey, part of an ongoing study by the Sinus Institute for Social Research released on June 29, found that the middle-class segment of the AfD's voters has grown from 43% two years ago to 56% now. Not only that, there are signs that the AfD's voter base is broadening. The survey found that AfD voters in this segment are not just what Sinus calls the "conservative and nostalgic" middle classes, but also the "adaptive-pragmatic" middle classes — in other words, people who switch their political allegiances according to current issues.

"What we're currently seeing is the younger, more modern middle-classes, who are actually more well-educated, are also showing an affinity to the AfD," Silke Borgstedt, director of the Sinus Institute, told DW. "Though we can't say yet whether that's because the other parties don't put together the appropriate program, or whether it's a conscious decision."

The populists are also continuing to make gains at the federal level: The latest infratest dimap opinion poll surveyed 1,305 eligible German voters between July 3 and 5 and found the AfD to have 20% voter support across the country. This makes them Germany's second strongest political force, behind only the center-right alliance of the Christian Democrat Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) who lost 1% support since June and now stand at 28%.

Political analyst Johannes Hillje explained to the taz newspaper."The AfD's basic narrative has always been that there is a threat to German culture (from liberal policies). For a long time, this came from the outside, through migrants, But now the narrative is that this threat is also coming from within, through the transformation of society to climate neutrality — a central project of the center-left coalition in Berlin and the Green Party."